No. 2025-01ディスカッション・ペーパー

Economic policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions in family firms: Evidence from Japan

要約

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This study examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty and its key components––fiscal, monetary, trade, and exchange rate policy uncertainties––on mergers and acquisitions (M&As) undertaken by Japanese family firms. We find that heightened policy uncertainties significantly reduce both the likelihood of engaging in M&A transactions and the number and value of deals, with fiscal policy uncertainty exerting the most pronounced influence. We also observe that trade policy uncertainty uniquely discourages deal completion, while overall and component-specific policy uncertainties significantly reduce the likelihood of friendly deal negotiations. While individual dimensions of policy uncertainty strongly deter domestic investment, they simultaneously encourage cross-border M&A activity among family firms. Additionally, our results also show that, compared to crisis periods of financial crises, the pandemic, and post-earthquake recovery, family firms are more sensitive to broader policy-driven uncertainties during non-crisis periods.

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著者名　　　宋天禕

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